The save is an inexact statistic adopted by MLB in 1969 to show what pitchers are talented at holding a lead late in a close game. Nineteen years later MLB introduced the blown save to keep track of which ones aren’t good at that. The Nationals bullpen just broke the all time record for blown saves, a perfect indication of their problems this season. They now have 38 blown saves, one more than the 2024 White Sox. Those White Sox couldn’t hit or pitch, and lost 121 games. The Nationals are significantly better than that but they now own a record no team wants.
Despite trading away their third and fourth best hitters five weeks ago and then immediately losing James Wood, their best hitter, to an injury for a month, the Nationals are second in runs scored on the season which is just remarkable. Since the August 2 trade deadline the Nationals starters have the 10th best ERA in the majors, even with some rookie starters just up from the minors, which is a significant improvement over the spring pitching. But In that same stretch the bullpen has a second-worst 5.58 ERA. The relief pitching has been bad all season, and now it’s historically bad.
The team record is 12-23 since the trade deadline but let’s look at what has gone right. Cade Cavalli has been excellent since he started throwing more breaking balls in the late spring, has a 3.08 season ERA, and has been about the 15th best starter in baseball. We can write him in as the opening day starter next year. Twenty-seven year old starter Andrew Alvarez has a 3.60 ERA in 95 innings, a solid season. Starter/reliever Brad Lord has a 3.62 ERA in 72 innings.
Since making their deadline trade deals for pitching depth, the Nationals have brought up several players from the minors who are showing they deserve to stay. Twenty-six-year-old Will Dion has a 3.20 ERA in 20 innings. Relievers Eric Tolman and Jake Bird have shined in short relief stints. The small sample sizes mean we can’t read too much into these performances but they do give fans some hope for a better bullpen next season.
At the plate, 27-year-old first baseman Andres Chaparro has a .911 OPS since the deadline and 24-year-old first baseman Yohandy Morales has continued his outstanding 2026 minor league performance after getting promoted to the Nationals. These two make trading 1B Luis Garcia Jr. to the Yankees a little more understandable. Twenty-three year old outfielder Daylen Lile finally recaptured the hitting magic in August that made him one of the best in the majors last August and September but eluded him this spring.
The decision to trade talented players they were likely to lose in the offseason anyway is looking more reasonable now. The Nationals had flirted with a .500 record for over two months as the trade deadline loomed, never able to put together a winning streak that would have put them squarely in a wild card spot. If they were still right around .500 today, like the 73-73 Pirates are, they would be five games out of the last wild card spot. The Diamondbacks and Padres are tied for that spot with 78-68 records, records the 2026 Nationals never looked like they would be able to match.
Where would the Nationals have been with an average closer this season? Clayton Beeter leads the team with 12 saves, and has 7 blown saves. I’m not sure how to identify an average closer but there are 30 teams so let’s look at the one with the 15th most saves, Yoendrys Gomez. He has 22 saves and no blown saves. Put him on the Nationals as closer and I think they held on to the lead in at least 10 more games. They would not be the new record holder.
The most obvious indicator of whether management is ready to spend some money on free agents this off-season is whether they sign a good closer. If they decide the team will give the ball to 18 (and counting) different relievers in a save situation again and hope one emerges as a reliable closer, prepare for more unnecessary crushing losses.
