Overture, curtains, lights…. this is it, the night of nights! Hooray for Hollywood! Tonight is the 97th Academy Awards. The voting deadline was February 19 – and what a wild ride of predictions and contradictions it has been.
With 13 Oscar nominations, Netflix’s Emilia Perez was considered a frontrunner to sweep the Academy Awards. That’s a lot – tying Oppenheimer’s own 13 nods last year. Consider that Titanic and All About Eve earned 14 noms went on to win and become legendary Best Pictures.
Hollywood is a ship of dreams – and icebergs. An erstwhile anti-Muslim tweet posted by trans woman star and Best Actress nominee Karla Sofia Gascón as Emilia Pérez sank her chances, and all the film’s statuette-winning odds except Zoe Saldaña’s for Best Supporting Actress. Even the former frontrunner for Best Song, El Mal, may have lost its lead.
Saldaña’s powerful performance has been considered a done deal to take home the Oscar for Best Actress in a Supporting Role, having swept the awards season with wins right and left. Watch out for an upset by Isabella Rossellini’s understated performance as a Vatican nun in Conclave.
Another likely shoe-in Oscar win is for Kieran Cullen playing himself in the marvelous movie A Real Pain. It’s about two cousins who travel to Poland to find their grandmother’s pre-Holocaust home. Jesse Eisenberg wrote the screenplay, directed, and stars in the film, which is up for Best Adapted Screenplay. Oscar odds are that statue goes to Conclave, as well as a most likely win for Best Editing.
But what’s four hours of an award show without an upset? Or a streaker. Or a protest. Or wardrobe malfunctions and an acceptance pratfall. So don’t discount Nickel Boys as a Best Adapted Screenplay.
What other nominations are a lock? Word on Hollywood Boulevard is that Anora (Pretty Woman goes to Brighton Beach) has got the momentum for not only Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Director (Sean Baker) but also a Best Actress win for Mikey Madison. Madison’s performance as Anora, the little sex worker that could, delivers a delightful wild ride alongside a gang of a Russian oligarch’s henchmen.
Veteran Demi Moore should take home the Actress Oscar tonight. She’s been in the biz for over four decades delivering a very unconventional pretty woman performance in The Substance. She won Best Actress last week at the SAG Awards. Her acceptance speech at the Golden Globes was a battle cry for women in filmmaking. But the ranked voting system for Oscar makes it possible for Fernanda Torres given her compelling performance in I’m Still Here to take the stage if the Anora and The Substance stars cancel each other out.
So here are the best guesses and personal picks from At Z MovieZ:
Best Picture:
Will win ~ Anora
Could win ~ Conclave
Should win ~ Dune (But that’s no surprise!)
Best Director:
Will win ~ Sean Baker for Anora
Could win ~ Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
Should win ~ Denis Villanueva for Dune Part Two – oh that’s right! He wasn’t nominated!??
Best Actor:
Will win ~ Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
Could win ~ Ralph Fiennes for Conclave and Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown.
Should win ~ Ralph Fiennes, Timothée Chalamet, and/or Colman Domingo for Sing Sing They haven’t won an Oscar. And Adrien Brody, as amazing as his performance was, has already won an Academy Award for this role.
Best Actress:
Will win ~ Demi Moore for The Substance
Could win ~ Mikey Moore for Anora or Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here
Should Win ~ Cynthia Erivo for Wicked
Best Supporting Actor:
Will win ~ Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain
Could win ~ Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice
Should win ~ Yura Borisov for Anora or Austin Butler had he been nominated for Dune Part Two.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win ~ Zoe Saldana
Could Win ~ Isabella Rossellini
Should Win ~ Zoe Saldana because it really was a leading role.
Best International Feature:
Will Win ~ I’m Still Here
Could Win ~ Emilia Perez
Should Win ~ Emilia Perez
Best Original Song:
Will win ~ The Journey from The Six Triple Eight (Diane Warren deserves an Oscar sooner than later even though the song doesn’t soar!)
Could win: El Mal
Should win: Mi Camino from Emilia Perez – a much better show stopper.
Best Original Score:
Will win ~ The Brutalist by Daniel Blumburg
Could win ~ Conclave by Volker Bertelmann
Should win: The Wild Robot by Kris Bowers- honored at the Middleburg Film Festival in 2024
Could have won ~ Dune Part Two by Kris Zimmerman – had the film been nominated!
Best Cinematography:
Will win ~ The Brutalist
Could win: Nosferatu
Should win: Dune Part Two – the filming format for The Brutalist does not upstage the cinematographic masterpiece that is Dune.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will win ~ The Substance
Could win ~ Wicked
Should win ~ Dune Part Two but it wasn’t nominated….. How is that possible?!?
Costume Design:
Will win ~ Wicked for Paul Tazewell
Could win ~ Conclave
Should win ~ Wicked but only because Dune Part Two wasn’t nominated….. How is that possible? Someone was not campaigning very hard for this film. Waiting for Dune Paradise?!?
Original Screenplay:
Will win ~ Anora by Sean Baker- he does it all
Could win ~ A Real Pain by Jesse Eisenberg – beautifully written and he does it all too!!!
Should win- September 5… brilliant screenplay about the news coverage drama amid a horrific tragedy
Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: Conclave by Peter Straugham
Could win Nickel Boys or Sing Sing
Should win: Conclave….. elegant and provocative
Production Design:
Will win: Wicked
Could win: The Brutalist.. tsk tsk AI!?!
Should win: Dune Part Two
Film Editing:
Will win: Conclave
Could win: The Brutalist…. Although at 3 1/2 hours it’s a tough task to impress
Should win: Conclave…. But September 5 deserved a nod too.
Sound:
Will win ~ Dune Part Two
Could win ~ A Complete Unknown – the Dylan music production was impeccable! There ought to be a Best Soundtrack Oscar
Should win ~ Dune Part Two
Visual Effects:
Will win ~ Dune Part Two
Could win ~ Wicked
Should win ~ Dune Part Two
Animated Feature:
Will win ~ The Wild Robot
Could win ~ Inside Out 2
Should win ~ The Wild Robot, although Memoir of a Snail was endearing and Flow had significand support from the cat culture contingency!
Documentary Feature:
Will win ~ Porcelain War – a film by Alexandria Film Festival filmmaker veterans!
Could win ~ No Other Land
Should win ~ Porcelain War– I’m rooting for the AFF festival home team!
Animated Short:
Will win ~ Wander to Wonder
Could win ~ In the Shadow of the Cypress– screened at the 2024 Alexandria Film Festival
Should win ~ In the Shadow of the Cypress– cheering for the home team film festival encore!
Documentary Short:
Will win: I Am Ready, Warden
Could win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Should win: I Am Ready, Warden
Live Action Short:
Will win ~ Anuja
Could win ~ I’m Not a Robot
Should win ~ Either one works for me!
So…….
Roll out that red carpet ….
Put on or out the Ritz….
Chill the bubbly…..
Pop the corn….
Or serve the caviar…..
Bling it, pj’s it…..
On with the show, this is it!!!!!
