The Nationals went into the offseason knowing that they had a competitive team through last July, and that the trades they made at the August deadline gave them pitching depth and prospects they need to be better than 77 wins in 2027. The big question is how much money the ownership is willing to spend to improve on the 2026 foundation. The offense led the league in runs most of the season and finished third so hitting was not the problem. If the Nats invest significantly in pitching they should contend for a postseason spot. They can start signing free agents five days after the World Series ends.
During the last week of the season in September manager Blake Butera said, “I think if we had an average bullpen, I think we’re probably talking about who we’re playing after this weekend.” (Instead of going on vacation.) He was right. The average team had 22 blown saves in 2026. The Nationals led the league and set a new record with 42. If you take away 20 times when they gave up the lead late in the game, I think they go from 77 wins to at least 88, which would have made them a wild card team. The Nats have to put money into a better bullpen.
The four teams that made the two league championship series show that the Lerner family doesn’t have to spend a huge amount to build a real contender. The Dodgers had the second highest 2026 payroll in baseball behind the Mets, $338 million. They basically print money in the dugout and pay for the best players they can find. The second highest payroll got them to the final four but it didn’t guarantee a spot in the World Series. Milwaukee saw to that. And the Mets, with the highest payroll, were a disaster in 2026.
The takeaway here is that the other three final teams in the postseason, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay, succeeded with reasonable payrolls. The Nationals could too. Milwaukee came in 19th in payroll, Tampa Bay came in 25th, and Cleveland remarkably had the lowest payroll in the majors and an 85-77 record. They also had an excellent bullpen and a dominant closer, by the way.
The Nationals were 28th in payroll at $101 million but fortunately because of contracts coming off the books, mostly Steven Strasburg’s last year under contract, they only have $77 million in salary commitments for 2027. This puts them last in the majors right now in payroll obligations.
Teams can start signing free agents five days after the World Series ends. The Nationals could use two proven starters to go with Cade Cavalli, Andrew Alvarez, and Connelly Early. And obviously several good bullpen arms. They could use more production at third base and second base, too.
Names to know in the farm system:
Eli Willits, shortstop, is one of the top prospects in the majors because he is so good at age 18. He could be on the team in 2028.
Seaver King, also shortstop, is 23 and will probably get a call-up in 2027. Under their new player development approach the Nationals have become more willing to leave a prospect in the minors until he is entirely ready for the majors, but King seems ready.
Jarlin Susana is the Nats’ top pitching prospect and currently in playing in the Arizona Fall League. He will compete for a 2027 rotation spot.
Travis Sykora is another top pitching prospect who has been recovering from elbow surgery but was outstanding before his injury.
Devin Fitz-Gerald is another middle infielder who should be in the mix for a promotion, most likely at second base.
With outfielder James Wood and shortstop CJ Abrams the Nats have two of the best hitters in the majors. Cade Cavalli was a top 15 pitcher. They also have one of the better farm systems and a player development team that got results last season at the major and minor league levels. They have a lot of pieces in place. They need a few more.
If the Lerners agree to increase salary to let’s say $115 million and the Nationals spend it wisely they should be contenders. The Braves and Phillies were playoff teams this year and the Mets can’t keep being terrible given the money they have to spend, so the Nats are in a tough division. But the Nats can be one of the smart midsize market teams that puts it all together and surprises everyone in 2027. The players they sign in the next month will tell us a lot about what to expect next season.
